International Space Station: What’s the Worst-Case Scenario for Deorbit?
The most dreaded scenario facing the International Space Station (ISS) as it nears the end of its operational life is a catastrophic failure of its controlled deorbit. This refers to any problem arising during the planned process of safely guiding the ISS into Earth’s atmosphere. If the ISS re-enters the atmosphere at an unintended time or location, it could lead to widespread dangerous debris dispersal and the generation of significant amounts of new space junk, posing a severe risk.
The ISS has been operating beyond its original design life, making future decommissioning plans a critical challenge for space agencies. Executing a safe, planned atmospheric re-entry requires sophisticated orbital maneuvers and precise timing. A failure in this process could render the ISS uncontrollable, escalating the risk of ground impact and, more critically, generating thousands of new debris pieces in low Earth orbit. This would present a long-term threat to future space activities. To avert such worst-case outcomes, space agencies worldwide are continuously consulting and preparing for the ISS’s safe operation and final disposal.
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